Chimney camera – live stream
If you want to make sure you don’t miss the result of the first vote when it comes, here’s our live stream showing the chimney on top of the Sistine Chapel:
Key events
Jakub Krupa
The wait continues. I think I recognise most seagulls on this roof by now.
Anticipation in the Vatican – in pictures
If you wonder about the chemistry behind the Vatican smoke, here’s our explainer from the last conclave in 2013.
How many votes are usually needed to elect pope?
Historically, some of the conclaves were really drawn out: in 13th century, they needed three years, over 1,000 days, to choose Gregory X.
There was also one that ended on the same day, although it started earlier in the morning: Julius II in 1503 was elected after just 10 hours.
But in the last 150 years, it was usually a much shorter process: the longest, for Pius XI in 1922, took 5 days.
Francis was elected on the second day in 2013, after five rounds of voting; similarly, Benedict XVI needed just four rounds to be confirmed as the new pope in 2005, as did John Paul I in 1978.
A bit more time was needed to confirm John Paul II – three days, eight rounds – in 1978, and John XXIII in 1958, with 11 votes over four days. But then his immediate predecessor, Pius XII was elected after just three rounds.
So, the recent history seems to suggest we could very well have a new pope before the weekend.
But since the process is so secretive and there are so many moving elements with a record-high number of cardinals involved in the process this year, there’s no way to predict what happens behind the closed doors.
Let’s see.
As we wait for black or white smoke after the first vote, some Catholic women campaigners released pink smoke from flares, and demanded that women be allowed to seek ordination, AFP reported.
“We are saying to the cardinals, you cannot keep ignoring 50% of the Catholic population, you cannot go into a locked room and discuss the future of the Church without half of the Church,” said Miriam Duignan.
“Whoever they elect needs to be brave enough to properly tackle the question of women’s inclusion, because so far it has not been, even by Pope Francis,” said Duignan, of the Wijngaards Institute in Cambridge.
In the global church as a whole, women have begun to take some senior lay roles, a process that accelerated a little under Pope Francis’s papacy.
But even those who have studied theology and church ministry are excluded from the priesthood, and only priests hold the most senior leadership roles, AFP noted.
Chimney camera – live stream
If you want to make sure you don’t miss the result of the first vote when it comes, here’s our live stream showing the chimney on top of the Sistine Chapel:
Who are the electors? – visuals
This conclave is billed as the largest and possibly the most unpredictable conclave to ever take place. So let’s take a look at the Vatican’s own statistics.
There are 133 cardinals electors (well, technically there are 135, but two were too ill to attend) from 70 countries, up from 115 from 48 nations in the last conclave in 2013.
The youngest one is Mykola Bychok, 45, from Ukraine; the oldest is Carlos Osoro Sierra, who turns 80 in less than two weeks. Those over 80 are not involved in the process.
107 of them were appointed by Pope Francis, 21 by Pope Benedict XVI, and five by Pope John Paul II.
The successful candidate needs a two-third majority, 89 votes, to get elected.
So, where do they come from?
The highest national representation comes from Italy (17) ahead of the US (10), Brazil (7), Spain and France (5 each).
Here is how it looks on the map:
Jakub Krupa
Right, we covered who the favourites are (and why they usually don’t win), so let’s take a look at who the electors are.
“Extra omnes” as doors to Sistine Chapel close – video
To give you a better idea of space and where we are, here’s a handy visual.
Santa Maria guesthouse, on the left, is where the cardinals sleep during the conclave; the Sistine Chapel is on the opposite side of St Peter’s Basilica.
In preparation for the conclave, the chapel has been swept for bugging devices, with windows covered and signal jammers turned on to make sure no one interferes with the electoral process.
Once we (eventually) get the new pope – announced with that famous phrase, Habemus Papam! – he will appear at the main balcony to be announced to the faithful in St Peter’s Square and the world, and we will learn about his new papal name.
As the doors to the Sistine Chapel close, our attention now turns to the chimney on top of the chapel which we will tell us about the outcome of the votes taking place inside.
Get used to this sight; we will spend a lot of time looking at it in the coming hours and days!
Conclave under way as doors to Sistine Chapel close
The doors to the Sistine Chapel have now been locked.
The formal election process starts here.
After a brief meditation, the first vote is expected to be taken still this afternoon.
Thereafter, four votes will be held each day until one candidate reaches a two-thirds majority, of 89 votes.
Extra omnes!
Once the individual oaths are over, the master of pontifical liturgical celebrations is about to say “extra omnes” – everyone out.
All those present except the cardinal electors and a handful of officials and doctors will now leave and the doors will be locked.
Cardinals part with social media before conclave
Angela Giuffrida
Before entering the Sistine Chapel on Wednesday afternoon and swearing an oath of silence, some cardinals, who are required to surrendered their mobile phones as part of their sequestration from the outside world, scrambled to post messages on social media.
“Today I enter the conclave without a cell phone,” Chomali Garib, a cardinal from Chile, wrote on X on Tuesday.
Garib, who also posted of video of himself washing a white shirt, added that the responsibility of the election “overwhelms” him.
Jean Paul Vesco, the Archbishop of Algiers, was more upbeat.
He wrote on Facebook:
“Tonight I enter the silence of the conclave, I can’t wait.
This archaic 11th century institution is demonstrating an incredible modernity in the age of over-media, of social media and our digital addictions…no more phone or internet, the windows of our rooms are sealed.
We will emerge with the proclamation: ‘ habemus papam’ (we have a pope).
What an adventure indeed!”
So, one last favourite I wanted to bring you the profile of is Pierbattista Pizzaballa of Italy.
Since 2020, Pizzaballa has been the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, a crucial role in advocating for the Christian minority in the Holy Land.
After Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, Pizzaballa offered himself as a hostage in exchange for children who were being held by Hamas in Gaza.
He visited Gaza in May 2024 after months of negotiations.
He would be expected to continue some aspects of Francis’s leadership of the church, but has made few public statements on controversial issues.
Jakub Krupa
Having said all of that, I offer you all these names and biographies to give you an idea on who the leading candidates are believed to be.
But as the famous saying goes, “he who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.”
Favourite rarely wins. Once the doors close, anything can happen.
Bologna archbishop Matteo Zuppi is another name on the short list of favourites.
Appointed a cardinal by Francis in 2019, Zuppi is considered to be on the progressive wing of the church, and would be expected to continue Francis’s legacy, sharing the late pope’s concern for the poor and marginalised. He is (relatively) liberal on same-sex relationships.
Two years ago, Francis made him the Vatican peace envoy for Ukraine, in which capacity he visited Moscow to “encourage gestures of humanity”.
While there he met Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox church and Vladimir Putin’s ally.
He has also met Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president.
