Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, has called a snap election on 28 April, firing the starting gun on a contest that is widely expected to focus on the strained relationship with the US amid threats to Canada’s economic and political future.
“We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetime because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty,” he said. “He wants to break us, so America can own us. We will not let this happen. We’re over the shock the shock of the betrayal, but we can never forget the lessons. We have to look out for ourselves. We have to look out for each other.”
Moments before, Carney met the governor general, Mary Simon, requesting she dissolve the country’s 44th parliament and call an election. Under federal law, the minimum length of a campaign is 37 days.
By calling the snap election in search of a “strong, positive mandate”, Carney does not have to face a hostile parliament – a showdown complicated by the fact that he doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons. Parliament had been due to return on Monday after being prorogued for two months, following former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement in early January.
Carney’s decision comes as the Liberals experience an unprecedented swing in the polls that has now put them ahead of the Conservatives, with some projecting the party has enough support nationally to form a majority government.
Prior to the dissolution of parliament, the incumbent Liberals held 152 seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives had 120, the Bloc Québécois 33, the NDP 24, and the Green party two.
“Carney has been the gamechanger and has totally reversed the fortunes of the Liberal party,” said Lori Turnbull, the director of Dalhousie University’s school of public administration. “And increasingly, this election is not really about the parties any more, or the brands they represent. We don’t elect our prime minister directly, but the feeling increasingly is that people are poised to vote for the leader they want to see as prime minister.”
Numerous surveys from polling firms suggest Canadians view Carney as more capable than the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, in handling economic turbulence, trade talks and relations with a hostile and unpredictable White House
Donald Trump has figured prominently into Canada’s political narrative, repeatedly threatening to wage economic war on the US’s closest ally and one of its largest trading partners, with the end goal of annexing the country’s northern neighbour.
Those threats, and the prospect of painful tariffs on Canadian goods, have electrified the country, with a groundswell of patriotism, calls to boycott American goods and an “elbows up” rallying cry.
“The election will certainly have a ballot question. But it isn’t Trump, it’s uncertainty. Trump is a symbol of that he’s showing how Canada is vulnerable in many ways. People want a leader who can be the antidote to that uncertainty,” said Turnbull. “And if you look at poll after poll, people believe Carney offers something, in this moment, that Canadians need.”
If the Liberals emerge victorious in April, it will be remembered as the largest political comeback in the country’s history – and for the Conservatives, a catastrophic loss of an election result that until recently was certain to fall in their favour.
As early as 2023, CBC’s polling aggregator had the Tory chance at electoral victory at 99% – a seemingly insurmountable edge they maintained until mid February 2025. But a series of confounding factors, including the resignation of Trudeau, threats by Trump to annex Canada and the rapid ascension of Carney as the new Liberal leader, has dramatically shifted the political landscape.
Turnbull said: “Conservatives seem to be falling short in saying the things that connect with how Canadians are feeling. A few months ago, Poilievre was talking about affordability and housing, issues that the Liberals were tonedeaf on. But now, he’s somehow absent. The Conservatives are keeping the same messaging, even though Canadians have shifted.
“They may be trying to convince themselves that that Carney is on a honeymoon, and if they just stick to their their notes, the polls will go back to some version of what they were before, and then they’ll cross the finish line first.”
Poilievre has framed his party’s campaign as a “Canada first” platform. On Sunday, he told reporters at his campaign launch: “Trump has been very blunt that he wants a weak Canada that he can target … Electing Liberals will weaken our country still.” He added that Canada “will never be an American state; we will always be a sovereign and self-reliant country”.
The Conservatives, without Trudeau as a political punching bag, say Carney is largely responsible for the country’s slow growth in recent years, given his role as economic adviser to the Liberal party. They call him “sneaky Carney” and allege he plans to bring back a controversial carbon tax he removed in his first day as prime minister.
“That whole strategy rests on being able to define Carney. And if they could do that, then their strategy would probably work,” said Turnbull. “But that’s not working. Voters, in poll after poll, are not accepting the Conservatives definition of who Mark Carney is. And that will matter in the coming weeks.”
