As the ceasefire in Gaza extended from days into weeks, and newly freed hostages began sharing grim details of their captivity, Benjamin Netanyahu’s political room for manoeuvre seemed to shrink.
He was caught between the far-right parties propping up his government, keen to return to war in Gaza, and the majority of Israelis who prioritised the fate of the remaining hostages over the “total defeat” of Hamas demanded by their prime minister.
Public opinion polls showed broad support for a second stage of the ceasefire deal, which would mean a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip and the return of all living hostages.
But his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who opposed the ceasefire deal from the start, had repeatedly threatened to quit if fighting didn’t resume, and Netanyahu has to coral his fractious coalition through a critical vote this month. If the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, doesn’t approve an overdue budget for 2025 by 31 March, the government will be automatically dissolved and the country will hold early elections.
For many in Israel, the overnight bombardment of Gaza, the deadliest since the early months of the war in 2023, was a clear sign Netanyahu had made a political decision about the future of the conflict.
Campaigners for hostages still held in Hamas captivity attacked it as an immense betrayal. Ayala Metzger, whose father-in-law Yoram Metzger was kidnapped to Gaza and killed in Hamas captivity, challenged Smotrich in parliament on Tuesday.
“There are deals on the table, and you are choosing to continue sacrificing more hostages and soldiers,” Metzger shouted at him in parliament, the Times of Israel reported. He ordered security to remove her, saying: “We paid [a price] too. Let’s not have a competition.”
Nor did criticism come only from the left, or the families most directly traumatised by the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023 that began the war.
Retired Maj Gen Amos Yadlin, former head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate, said that restarting the war while hostages were still in Gaza would undermine the military’s effectiveness in operations there and damage morale.
“A responsible Israeli leader, who has no internal political consideration, would bring all the hostages back in one group, up front, [in return] for ending the war, and then will take care of the second goal of the war to dismantle Hamas,” he said in a briefing to journalists on Tuesday.
“When Israeli reservists came [to serve] in October 2023, their main motivation was to bring back the hostages. Now someone has to convince them that the ground operation will bring back the hostages [alive], not bring them back dead. This is a tough job,” he added.
Those cracks in morale have already started showing. The military announced on Tuesday it had dismissed a combat navigator from the reserves who said he would not report for duty in protest at the government’s conduct, the Haaretz newspaper reported. The air force said it was an isolated case, but some senior officials are concerned that others will follow suit.
Netanyahu’s resistance to a state commission of inquiry into failings on 7 October has added to anger inside Israel and fuelled critics who say he is managing the war for political rather than patriotic ends.
The prime minister has always strongly rejected these accusations, arguing from the early days of the war that military pressure was the best way to bring hostages home – even though most of those who are back have returned in ceasefire deals – and that only the “total destruction” of Hamas would ensure Israel’s future security.
His office blamed the militant group for the collapse in the ceasefire, saying it launched the strikes because the group “repeatedly” refused to release hostages, and rejected proposals from US envoy Steve Witkoff.
The deal, always fragile and violated repeatedly by both parties, had slid into limbo this month after a deadline for the end of the first phase passed without any progress to a second phase.
Netanyahu delayed starting negotiations on that second phase as scheduled in February, pushing instead to draw out the first stage. Yadlin said that had undermined Israel’s longer-term position.
“I think Hamas would have broken [the] negotiations anyway, by a very, very tough position. But legitimacy is important, and if you sign an agreement you have to negotiate.”
Regardless of motivation, the political dividends of restarting the war were clear almost immediately. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right party leader who quit his cabinet post in January over the ceasefire deal, announced his return to government within hours.
He hailed the overnight attacks as “the right moral, ethical and justified step”, in a statement that suggested he expected them to be the start of a wider campaign. That was confirmed by foreign minister, Gideon Saar, who told visiting members of the US lobby group the American Israel Public Affairs Committee that the overnight bombing was not part of a “one-day attack”.
Evacuation orders issued for parts of Gaza suggested that Israel was preparing for a ground war, even if no decision has yet been made on sending troops in. Israel’s new chief of defence staff, Eyal Zamir, approved Gaza attack plans on his first day in command earlier this month, Israeli media reported.
The latest attack brought a chorus of condemnation from around the world, with close allies including the UK, the United Nations and humanitarian groups among those warning of the catastrophic consequences for over 2 million Palestinians in Gaza.
However, Saar said Washington was told about the strikes in advance and backed them. The US is Israel’s main supplier of weapons and its diplomatic protector in international forums such as the United Nations.
Donald Trump has previously warned there would be “hell to pay” if Hamas didn’t release all the hostages. If he is onboard with a new phase of fighting, there may be little that Netanyahu’s domestic or international critics can do to quiet the guns.
