Fears of a return to war in Gaza are intensifying this weekend, with faltering diplomatic efforts and almost daily airstrikes by Israeli forces in the devastated territory.
There has been relative calm in Gaza since a ceasefire for prisoners deal between Hamas and Israel came into effect in January, pausing 15 months of conflict. However, the first phase of that agreement expired more than a week ago and a second phase has stalled, leaving Gaza plunged into a “grey zone” of uncertainty.
“I feel happiness and relief that the fighting has been stopped for so long but right now, I am really anxious the war will start again. I follow the news continuously,” said Ranan al-Ashqar, who works in the education ministry in Gaza City.
Many observers see only a narrow and unlikely pathway to any durable peace. “We are in a grey zone. I am pessimistic about the potential going forward because the political calculations for the Israeli leadership do not favour a ceasefire that would involve an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza,” said Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Some analysts fear a return to wider hostilities within days as Israel seeks to pressure Hamas into new concessions.
Others suggest that a large-scale ground and air operation by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “within weeks” is more likely if no new deal is reached. Last week, senior IDF officers told Israeli journalists that if Israeli forces launched a renewed offensive, it would be massive and very destructive.
So far, the IDF has limited itself to a series of airstrikes across Gaza, though these appear to be increasingly frequent.
On Saturday, Palestinian media reported casualties from an airstrike in southern Gaza near the town of Rafah. The IDF said an aircraft had struck a drone tracked entering Gaza from Israel as well as several suspects who collected it. A day earlier, the IDF said it had targeted a group suspected of placing a bomb near Israeli soldiers in the east of Gaza City.
Palestinian aid officials said two people had died when a drone “shot into their tent”. Aid officials and residents described similar incidents in the past week, and repeatedly hearing artillery fire, though the IDF has denied any extensive bombardment.
In the first phase of the ceasefire, 25 living hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were released, along with the remains of eight others, in return for the release of about 1,900 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Israel also withdrew its forces from many positions in Gaza and allowed more aid to come in.
In Gaza, humanitarian workers differ about the effects of the pause in hostilities. One senior UN official said aid organisations had been able to rehabilitate some schools and clinics, set up bakeries and build up stocks of diesel fuel that is vital to supply power and water to the population of 2.3m.
More than half a million people have returned to what is left of their homes in northern Gaza after spending months in the south.
But prices have soared since Israel imposed a strict blockade on Gaza, cutting off supplies of fresh fruit, vegetables and meat, as well as further aid shipments of tents and other essentials. The price of gas on the hidden market is 10 times higher than from aid organisations charged with its distribution. Israel accused Hamas of seizing and profiting from aid.
“We could be facing a quick deterioration. Every day we are hearing these statements of a return to war. It’s very difficult for people,” said Amjad Shawa, the director of the Palestinian NGOs Network in Gaza, speaking from Gaza City.
“It is a very sad city here. There is a lot of rubble and only a few bulldozers so we have opened a few streets and are trying to collect the remains of families under the ruins. We don’t have the equipment we need but people are trying anyway.”
The Israeli offensive has killed more than 48,000, mostly civilians, and destroyed swathes of Gaza. It was triggered by a Hamas surprise attack into Israel in October 2023 during which militants killed 1,200 people, also mostly civilians, and took 250 hostages. Fewer than half of the 59 hostages still held in Gaza are believed to be alive.
While Israel has said it wants to extend the current phase of the ceasefire until the end of the holy festivals of Ramadan in late March and Passover in mid-April, Hamas has insisted on a swift transition to the second phase, and a permanent end to the war.
Zev Faintuch, head of research at Global Guardian, a US-based risk consultancy, said Israel’s war aims remained unchanged: to eliminate Hamas, return the hostages, return its displaced civilians to border areas affected by hostilities and minimise any future threat.
But at the same time, Hamas has remained faithful to its original goals: to thwart progress towards the normalisation of ties between regional Arab states and Israel, isolate Israel diplomatically, widen divisions within Israeli society and retain control of Gaza. “The four points on each side are pretty mutually exclusive,” Faintuch said.
Diplomatic efforts to bridge the wide gap between Israel and Hamas have faltered, and there are now two competing plans for Gaza post-war.
President Trump has said the US wants to oversee the displacement of Gaza’s population so the territory could be rebuilt as “the Middle East’s Riviera” and US officials have dismissed a $53bn reconstruction proposal put forward last week by regional Arab states.
Trump has also threatened Hamas with destruction on social media, though it was revealed last week that the US is engaged in unprecedented direct talks with the militant Islamist organisation. Lovatt said that recent US behaviour had been unhelpful, though the direct talks left an “outside chance of agreement”.
Almazah al-Masri, a nurse in northern Gaza, said she was worried and frustrated. “Unfortunately, those involved in the discussions [about the ceasefire] do not care about what’s happening in Gaza or the wellbeing of the civilians there,” she said. “We do not want war at all. We have already been destroyed.”
