This year’s SEC is proving they should be in the conversation for strongest conference
USA TODAY Sports’ Jordan Mendoza explains what makes the SEC so dominant in men’s college basketball.
Sports Seriously
The regular season is coming to a close in men’s college basketball, and there’s plenty of shuffling happening in the projected March Madness bracket.
Only a handful of teams have a case for a No. 1 seed, and there are some changes at the top of bracket that very much can change the trajectory of the title favorites. However, most of the movement in the newest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology is happening around the middle of the seed lines and the bubble. Those in the No. 7-10 range can make for compelling matchups in the first round, considering those teams are either gaining momentum or losing steam heading into March. At the bottom of the bracket, there’s been some major movement as to which teams will qualify for the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.
With conference tournaments and automatic bids just a week away from being clinched, here are the teams that are either rising or falling down the projected bracket.
Rising
Tennessee
Current projected seed: No. 1 (West)
The newest No. 1 seed in the field, Tennessee gets a top spot in the bracket following Jahmai Mashack’s clutch game-winning 3-pointer against Alabama on Saturday. It was the fourth consecutive victory and second Quad 1 win in a week. Although the Volunteers are fourth in the SEC, they now have 10 Quad 1 wins, tying Alabama and Michigan State for the second-most in the country. There are chances other SEC contenders make a case for a top seed this week, but if the Volunteers close out with two victories, it’ll be tough to knock them off the podium.
Vanderbilt
Current projected seed: No. 7 (East)
The Vanderbilt magic is going strong with three consecutive victories against ranked opponents before a loss Tuesday to Arkansas. A No. 10 seed less than two weeks ago, Vanderbilt now has drastically bumped the Quad 1 record to 5-8 and it has a chance to get one more against Georgia in its regular-season finale.
Oregon
Current projected seed: No. 7 (West)
Something about March makes the Ducks lock in. Oregon had a mid-season lull when it lost five in a row, but it has revived its season with five consecutive wins. During that stretch, it picked up two Quad 1 victories to give it eight wins in the category, tied for the second most in the Big Ten. Already with impressive wins against teams like Texas A&M, Alabama and Wisconsin on the resume, the Ducks could push higher with run in the Big Ten tournament.
San Diego State
Current projected seed: No. 10 (Midwest)
The 2023 runner-up is starting to have an assured spot of making the tournament for the fourth consecutive time. San Diego State took down Mountain West leader New Mexico last week and have won five of its last six, good enough to move the Aztecs out of First Four territory they were in last week. The schedule isn’t tough to end the regular season, and San Diego State could use a win or two in the conference tournament to feel relaxed about its position.
Georgia
Current projected seed: No. 11 (West)
Georgia had an incredibly successful week that moved the Bulldogs back in the projected field after being completely out of the picture a week ago. Two Quad 1 wins − including the massive one over Florida − saved Georgia’s season considering it lost nine previous in that category. While still around the bubble, Georgia can stay out of having to play in Dayton if it is able to continue the momentum against Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Boise State
Current projected seed: No. 11 (South, First Four)
Another Mountain West team has joined the field with the Broncos surging from out of consideration for most of 2025 to the First Four. Boise State has picked up notable wins against New Mexico and Utah State during its five-game win streak with a visit from Colorado State to wrap up its regular season. A win against the Rams and avoiding an early loss in the Mountain West tournament would clarify its status.
Falling
Alabama
Current projected seed: No. 2 (West)
After it was a projected No. 1 seed for more than a month, Alabama is now down one spot while navigating one of the most difficult stretches in the country. The Crimson Tide’s loss to Tennessee was their three defeats in five outings, making it a tough case to leave them on the top spot. Not only is it a No. 2 seed, but it’s currently projected to play in the West region, not a major issue considering that’s the region where Alabama made the Final Four from last year. The Tide could play its way back into a top seed with Florida and Auburn to close the regular season.
Mississippi
Current projected seed: No. 9 (Midwest)
Mississippi was as high as a No. 5 seed before a string of losses have pushed the Rebels to the bottom half of the bracket. They rebounded with a narrow home defeat of Oklahoma, and there’s an opportunity to push higher. The Quad 1 record is now at 5-9 with Tennessee and Florida this week. Losses, however, could send Ole Miss to the first round of the SEC tournament.
Creighton
Current projected seed: No. 9 (South)
Creighton’s successful start in Big East play had it pushing as a No. 6 seed, but the Bluejays are 3-3 in their last six games without the benefit of a win that can boost their profile. With a visit from Butler to close the regular season, Creighton needs a run in the Big East tournament to get a better positioning when the bracket is released.
Baylor
Current projected seed: No. 10 (East)
Believe it or not, Baylor was trending toward the bubble until an important defeat of TCU. Prior to the win Tuesday, the Bears had losses to Houston, Texas Tech and Arizona and also fell to Colorado and Cincinnati – two teams that likely won’t make the tournament. A No. 10 seed would be Baylor’s worst seed in the tournament since 2008.
Nebraska
Current projected seed: First four out.
Just when Nebraska looked like it was headed away from the bubble, a string of bad losses have pushed it outside of the field. The loss to Penn State wasn’t a good look, but losing to Minnesota in crushing fashion on Saturday marked the second Quad 3 loss of the season. Not a good look for a team trying to prove itself to the committee, especially when the NET ranking of 57 isn’t impressive.
Wake Forest
Current projected seed: Next four out.
NCAA Tournament hopes can be kissed goodbye by Wake Forest as it completely fell flat in recent weeks. The Demon Deacons faltered in losses to Florida State, North Carolina State and Virginia, and then got drubbed by Duke in what was effectively their last chance to make a case for an at-large berth. With a NET ranking of 72, only an ACC tournament title will save the Demon Deacons from missing the big dance for the eighth year in row.
