Jarvis dismisses Tory suggestion Home Office prioritises ‘policing manosphere’ over combating Islamist terrorism
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said the leak of the report did propose an extension of the definition of extremism. He asked a series of questions.
He asked if the government agreed with the recommendation of William Shawcross’s review of the Prevent programme. Shawcross said Prevent should focus on extremist ideology.
94% of terrorism caused deaths since 1999 were caused by Islamist terrorism. Does [the minister] agree that combating Islamist terrorism is more important than policing the manosphere?
Philp said problems like violence against women and girls, and an obsession with violence generally, were best dealt with by the police.
He asked if the government would continue with the policy of the last Tory government, telling the police to focus less on non-crime hate incidents.
Police should not be looking into matters or recording personal data where there is no imminent risk of criminality. To do so would waste police time and infringe freedom of speech. Any move away from this will enable the thorough police to stop anyone telling uncomfortable truths that leftwing lawyers don’t like.
Philp also said the internal report said that people campaigning against rape gangs, or commenting on two-tier policing, were far right. He went on:
That is nonsense. Campaigning against rape gangs is not extremist or far right, and commenting on policing, whether you agree or not with the comments, is simply the exercise of free speech. So will the minister categorically disown those remarks which were contained in the home secretary’s report?
In response, Dan Jarvis, the security minister, said that the government has recommended all but one of the Shawcross recommendations.
And, on non-crime hate incidents, he said the government had been clear that the police should focus on making the streets safer.
He did not address Philp’s final point.
Key events
In response to a question from Chris Murray (Lab), Jarvis said the Home Office has already announced plans to toughen up the law on buying knives online. He said:
Under these new rules, a two-step system will be mandated for all retailers selling knives online, requiring customers to submit photo ID point of sale, and again, on delivery. Delivery companies will only be able to deliver a bladed article to the person who purchased it.
And it will also be illegal to leave a package containing a bladed weapon on a doorstep when no one is going to receive it.
Jarvis claimed that previous governments used these issues as “a political football”. It was motivated by the desire to score political points. “That will never be the approach of this government,” he said.
Jarvis told MPs that there were different versions of the Home Office report leaked to Policy Exchange. It was not clear which version the thinktank obtained, he said.
Jarvis dismisses Tory suggestion Home Office prioritises ‘policing manosphere’ over combating Islamist terrorism
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said the leak of the report did propose an extension of the definition of extremism. He asked a series of questions.
He asked if the government agreed with the recommendation of William Shawcross’s review of the Prevent programme. Shawcross said Prevent should focus on extremist ideology.
94% of terrorism caused deaths since 1999 were caused by Islamist terrorism. Does [the minister] agree that combating Islamist terrorism is more important than policing the manosphere?
Philp said problems like violence against women and girls, and an obsession with violence generally, were best dealt with by the police.
He asked if the government would continue with the policy of the last Tory government, telling the police to focus less on non-crime hate incidents.
Police should not be looking into matters or recording personal data where there is no imminent risk of criminality. To do so would waste police time and infringe freedom of speech. Any move away from this will enable the thorough police to stop anyone telling uncomfortable truths that leftwing lawyers don’t like.
Philp also said the internal report said that people campaigning against rape gangs, or commenting on two-tier policing, were far right. He went on:
That is nonsense. Campaigning against rape gangs is not extremist or far right, and commenting on policing, whether you agree or not with the comments, is simply the exercise of free speech. So will the minister categorically disown those remarks which were contained in the home secretary’s report?
In response, Dan Jarvis, the security minister, said that the government has recommended all but one of the Shawcross recommendations.
And, on non-crime hate incidents, he said the government had been clear that the police should focus on making the streets safer.
He did not address Philp’s final point.
Security minister Dan Jarvis says Home Office does not have plans to expand defintion of extremism
Dan Jarvis, the security minister, is responding to a Tory urgent question about the Policy Exchange report about a leaked, internal Home Office document about extremism.
He says many documents are published across government that are not government policy.
He says the document did not recommend an expansion in the definition extremism, and he says “there are not and have never been any plans to do so”.
But he says there has been a “troubling rise” in the number of cases of teenagers drawn into extremism, and the home secretary has set out plans to deal with that.
Rise in UK population forecast by ONS would boost GDP by 0.3%, and cut borrowing by £5bn, thinktank says
At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning, asked about the ONS’s projected population increase figures (see 10.38am), the PM’s spokesperson said Keir Starmer was committed to reducing net migration, which he said was “staggeringly high”. This discussion came after an earlier discussion about the government’s commitment to increase growth.
But the Resolution Foundation thinktank says, if the government wants growth, it should welcome the projected population increase, driven by net migration. It says:
New ONS population projections should, if incorporated by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), improve the economic and fiscal outlook, and reduce borrowing by around £5 billion …
The new projections have revised up expectations of the working-age population in 2029-30 by around 400,000. Based on previous scenarios from the OBR, the foundation estimates that such an upward revision to the working-age population would boost forecast GDP by around 0.3 per cent – or £12 billion a year. This in turn should reduce forecast borrowing by around £5bn a year – all else equal. This would be welcome news for the Treasury ahead of the spring forecast given rising debt interest costs in the opposite direction …
A bigger population would ordinarily mean higher demand for public services. However, the foundation notes that with the projected number of children – who are large consumers of public services – revised down by 160,000 in 2029-30, the new population projections may not increase the pressure on public services.
Finally, the foundation says the revised projections are likely to have wider impacts on the UK’s economic record – likely slightly weakening its already dire performance on productivity and per person income growth. The OBR will weigh up whether it agrees with the ONS projections, and the various impacts of a larger population, when it updates its economic and fiscal outlook on 26 March.
And Adam Corlett, principal economist at the thinktank, said:
Britain is forecast to have a slightly bigger population by the end of the decade than previously thought. While the projected number of children in Britain has been revised down by 160,000, this has been more than offset by working-age population forecasts rising by around 400,000, driven by higher net migration.
A larger working-age population means a bigger economy, more workers, and higher tax receipts, which should deliver a fiscal boost of around £5bn a year by the end of the decade. If the OBR uses these population projections, this will be welcome news for the Chancellor given the wider economic pressures she is facing.
Government appoints 32 mostly Labour MPs and peers as trade envoys, calling them ‘global growth team’
The government has appointed 32 MPs and peers, from various parties by mostly Labour, to serve as trade envoys. Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, describes them as a “global growth team” and says they will “use their experience, expertise and knowledge to unlock new markets around the world for British businesses, drumming up investment into the UK and ultimately driving economic growth”.
The full list is here.
Investment in UK may be 10% lower than expected as result of Brexit, report says
Friday will mark the fifth anniversary of the day the UK left the EU. The Daily Express is running articles all week to mark the occasion, but elsewhere it is hard to find anyone minded to celebrate. At GB News they seem a bit concerned that Keir Starmer is not planning anything special. This chart, from the Economist, with polling showing that Britons now regard leaving as a mistake by a margin of almost two to one, explains the silence.
But UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE), one of the lead thinktanks on Brexit policy, has lined up something special. It has published a 142-page report with a series of short, clear essays explaining the impact of Brexit in numberous areas. One of the most interesting, by Stephen Hunsaker, covers investment. Hunsaker, a UKICE researcher, says that leaving the EU, and losing investment from the European Investment Bank, may have cut investment by 10%. He explains:
The UK has long faced challenges with low investment levels, affecting both business and public infrastructure. While these issues predate Brexit, the economic uncertainty stemming from the UK’s decision to leave the EU has deepened the country’s investment struggles. One of the most significant consequences of Brexit was the loss of funding from the European Investment Bank (EIB), which historically played a critical role in financing major UK infrastructure projects. Despite efforts to replace this funding with new domestic investment banks, the gap remains substantial, posing significant challenges to Labour’s plan for future growth.
There is a consensus that low levels of investment, both private and public, have held back productivity growth. The relatively low level of business investment in the UK pre-dated Brexit, but both aggregate data and survey evidence strongly suggest that Brexit is at least partly responsible for the particularly poor performance since 2016.
Investment may have been 10% lower than expected, potentially reducing productivity and GDP by over 1%. Some argued that this was driven primarily by Brexit uncertainty – and so would improve once the Brexit deal was implemented – but there is little evidence of this to date. The UK has continued to underperform the rest of the G7 on investment. Additionally, the UK saw rapid growth in business investment from 2010 to 2016 but as of Q2 2024, business investment remains at the same level as in Q2 2016.
There will be an urgent question in the Commons at 12.30pm on the Policy Exchange report about the leaked Home Office paper on extremism policy. Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, has tabled the question.
After that there will be another UQ, tabled by the Green MP Siân Berry, about Heathrow expansion. A transport minister will respond.
After that, at around 2pm, there will be two Foreign Office statements: Anneliese Dodds, the develoment minister, on Gaza, and then David Lammy, the foreign secretary, on Sudan and the Eastern DRC.
SNP welcomes report saying migration will boost Scotland’s population, as Tories claim 5m increase for UK ‘shocking’
The Conservative party says the prospect of the UK population increasing by five million over the next decade, as the ONS expects (see 10.38am), is shocking.
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said:
This projection is shocking and unacceptable. It can and must be stopped from materialising.
Ten million arrivals over ten years is far too high. We need a binding legal cap on visas issued each year which is very, very substantially lower than this in order to get the numbers down and under control.
But Kaukab Stewart, equalities minister in the SNP Scottish government, welcomed the forecast that immigrants will continue to want to settle in the country. She said:
These projections suggest that Scotland will continue to be an attractive country for people to live, work, study and settle in. We welcome people from around the world and other parts of the UK who want to build their lives here.
While our population is projected to continue aging, all projected growth will come from inward migration. This shows just how crucial migrants are to ensuring Scotland has a greater proportion of people of working age to fill skills gaps, sustain public services, contribute to communities, and grow the economy.
To enable us to address our demographic challenges, migration policies must be tailored to Scotland’s distinct needs. We will continue to press the UK government on introducing a Scottish graduate visa to help us retain capable people from around the world, and to work with us on a rural visa pilot tailored to the needs of our rural and island communities.
Starmer restates call for new approach to dealing with ‘cohort of loners who are extreme’
Keir Starmer has restated his belief that the authorities need to find a new way of dealing with “a cohort of loners who are extreme” but who might not fit the conventional definition of terrorism.
In an interview with ITV, asked why the government has decided to reject a recommendation from an internal Home Office report saying the definition of extremism should be broadened, even though Starmer seemed to be saying the opposite last week (see 9.26am), Starmer replied:
When it comes to extremism, it’s very important that we are focused on the threat so we can deploy our resource properly, and therefore we’re looking carefully at where the key challenges are.
Obviously, that’s now informed in what I said last week in the aftermath of the Southport murders, where we’ve got the additional challenge of a cohort of loners who are extreme, and they need to be factored in. So that’s the focus.
‘We’ve got the additional challenge, I think, of a sort of cohort of loners who are extreme and they need to be factored in’
Starmer responds to Home Office plans to reject internal advice around widening the definition of extremism to cover the far left and environmentalists pic.twitter.com/v0TPTJiIQH
— ITVPolitics (@ITVNewsPolitics) January 28, 2025
UK population expected to increase by 5m over next decade due to net migration, ONS says
The UK population could grow by almost five million over the next decade to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032 because of net migration, figures suggest. PA Media reports:
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects the rise from 67.6 million in mid-2022 will be driven almost entirely by net migration, with the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country estimated to total 4.9 million over the 10-year period.
This is compared to the natural change in population – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be “around zero”.
The data, published this morning, assumes the level of net migration will average 340,000 a year from mid-2028 onwards, lower than current levels.
The number of births compared to the number of deaths across the period is estimated to be almost identical – 6.8 million.
While births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are also projected to rise due to the relatively large number of people reaching older ages who were born during the so-called baby boom in the wake of the Second World War.
The estimates mean the overall UK population is projected to rise by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with an increase of 6.1% over the previous 10 years.
Commening on the figures, James Robards, from the ONS, said:
The UK population is projected to grow by almost five million over the next decade. The driver of this growth is migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be around zero.
Our latest projections also highlight an increasingly ageing population, with the number of people aged over 85 projected to nearly double to 3.3 million by 2047. This is in part because of the ageing of the baby boom generation, as well as general increases in life expectancy.
And these are from the ONS report.
Starmer says he wants ‘even better’ trading relationship with US
In his Bloomberg interview Keir Starmer also said that he wanted an “even better” trading relationship with the US.
We’ve got a huge amount of trade between our two countries already and the base is there for even better trading relations. We need to build on that.
Starmer says Labour must get economy working and ‘we’re beginning to see how that’s turning around’
Keir Starmer has claimed that the economy is beginning to revive.
Growth has been largely flat since Labour took office, but in an interview with Bloomberg this morning he claimed that it was starting to revive.
We have to get our economy working. I think we’re beginning to see how that’s turning around.
The number one priority of this Labour government is growth: growth, growth, growth.
Starmer spoke to Bloomberg after his meeting this morning with business leaders, ahead of Rachel Reeves’ speech tomorrow on promoting growth. According to Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham, “hose in attendance at the breakfast meeting included Lloyds Banking Group CEO Charlie Nunn, Nationwide Building Society CEO Debbie Crosbie, BAE Systems CEO Charles Woodburn and Tesco chief Ken Murphy. Other companies represented included Sage Group, Taylor Wimpey, BT, Unilever and Vodafone Group.”
Starmer told the meeting that growth was the government’s number one mission and that ministers were “hardwiring growth into all the decisions of the cabinet”.
