NFL divisional round overreactions
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down the divisional round of the NFL playoffs as the championship game matchups are set.
Sports Seriously
Lamar Jackson will very likely be the NFL’s 2024 MVP.
But should he be?
As it tends to inherently be, the MVP debate has been a spirited one this season. Should Jackson, who’s already won the award twice, be recognized on the heels of what was – statistically anyway – the greatest campaign of his seven-season career, albeit aided and abetted by a loaded roster that welcomed running back Derrick Henry this season? Should it be the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen, whose numbers don’t quite measure up to Jackson’s? Yet that doesn’t detract at all from the fact Allen just about neutralized his penchant for turnovers while largely carrying a team that was stripped of a great deal of talent due to its bloated salary cap.
(And given what we’ve seen this weekend, maybe the merits of cases posed by the Philadelphia Eagles’ Saquon Barkley and Washington Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels should also be re-examined. Also, if you could have any player in the league to build around, what are the chances you’re not taking Patrick Mahomes?)
Granted, this is really more thought exercise than fervent debate on behalf of any of these deserving candidates. The hay’s in the barn, as they say, voting for the MVP award by the Associated Press’ 50-person panel closing on Jan. 8, a few days before the playoffs began. (And, yes, I have a ballot but, no, I won’t – and can’t – reveal my choice right now.) However Jackson has already been revealed as the first-team All-Pro quarterback – appointed as such by the same group of voters, a very strong indication he’ll also be the MVP.
But back to the original question here. I’m not so much questioning Jackson’s candidacy – and he was awesome this season – because I don’t think he’s worthy. It’s more a creeping sentiment that maybe this award – and MVP honors across all leagues generally – shouldn’t be limited by the bounds of a regular season. I mean, by definition, won’t a “most valuable player” have his team in the mix to compete for a championship? The last NFL MVP whose team didn’t qualify for the playoffs was … O.J. Simpson. In 1973. Which isn’t to say, for example, the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow shouldn’t have been eligible this season but, all due respect to his supporters (Troy Aikman, for example), did Burrow really belong in the conversation anyway?
MVPs ought to be authenticated by championships – or at least be in the same area code. Right? Tom Brady and Michael Jordan should probably have at least 10 league MVPs. (Seven-time Super Bowl winner Brady has three. Six-time NBA champion Jordan has five. Heresy.) And by my own suggested definition, it would be fine to honor the likes of Charles Barkley or Karl Malone or Matt Ryan or Cam Newton or Adrian Peterson – or, heck, Aaron Rodgers – for excellence even if their teams ultimately fell short of the brass ring. (Though all four of Rodgers’ MVPs were awarded after he won his lone Super Bowl appearance at the end of the 2010 season … which makes such recognition feel a bit emptier in retrospect? Maybe?)
Back to Jackson and the NFL, which is distinctly unique from other major North American sports leagues given its single-elimination postseason format. I was in Baltimore during the 2019 playoffs, which commenced after a magical year for the top-seeded Ravens and Jackson, who would win his first MVP. Yet the team got its doors blown off by the sixth-seeded Tennessee Titans, and Henry was quite obviously the best player on the field that night. Jackson didn’t come close to fulfilling his MVP billing in last year’s AFC championship game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
And it basically happened again Sunday, Jackson turning the ball over twice in a game for the first time this season. And maybe he was the best player on the field in Western New York, but over the entire weekend? To his credit, Jackson put the critical spotlight on himself.
“I had two costly turnovers,” he said after his playoff record dropped to 3-5. “Threw a (expletive) interception.
“Protecting the ball, that’s the number one priority. And we didn’t do it – especially me, I’m the leader. I’ve got to protect the ball, you know? So I’m hot.”
Jackson is worthy of so many superlatives and should probably already be considered the greatest dual-threat quarterback in NFL history. But should a player who’s never reached Super Sunday and consistently performs shy of his capabilities when his team needs him the most be a multiple MVP winner? (If Jackson wins it this season, he’ll be the seventh three-time NFL MVP … but only one among that group without a championship.)
Again, this is not so much a critique of a luminary like Jackson but more rumination that these awards are not actually representative of what they’re supposed to be. And the Ravens’ latest failure underscores that – and, yes, Jackson almost brought them all the way back even though it clearly wasn’t the best performance by him … or poor tight end Mark Andrews.
But juxtapose that with Allen, who once again did precisely what he needed to while helping the Bills advance to the AFC championship game. The numbers were modest (127 yards passing, 20 yards and a pair of TDs rushing), but the result certainly wasn’t.
“Josh Allen is the MVP. I’m tired of all (the talk). Josh Allen is the MVP,” Bills Pro Bowl left tackle Dion Dawkins told NFL Network after Saturday’s victory.
“The Buffalo Bills are one step closer.”
Meanwhile, earlier in the day, Barkley hung a 200-yard, two-TD rushing day on the Los Angeles Rams for the second time this season and decisively showed that the MVP should not be solely the purview of quarterbacks.
“He’s the best in the world,” Philly wideout A.J. Brown said of Barkley earlier this season.
And Daniels? It’s impressive enough that he’s the first Washington quarterback to ever engineer multiple wins on the road in the same postseason. That pales in comparison to his huge hand in resuscitating a franchise that’s been dormant – at best – during the preceding three decades. How should he not get further consideration as the most valuable performer in the league this season? Particularly if he becomes the first rookie ever to lead a team to the Super Bowl?
Guess it depends on what you truly value when defining “most valuable.”
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.
