US sees possible Gaza deal this week – White House
The Biden administration sees a possible Gaza agreement as soon as this week, White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told Bloomberg News earlier today. Despite expressing optimism, he stressed there were no guarantees that Israel and Hamas would agree to such a deal that could pause the 15-month-old war on the devastated territory. The US is pressing for a deal before Donald Trump takes office on 20 January.
Here is an extract from the Bloomberg piece:
Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say they’ve presented a detailed outline to Hamas in a second day of discussions in the Qatari capital of Doha and are awaiting approval for final talks. A Hamas official outside Gaza, who asked not to be identified, agreed that a deal is closer than ever …
The talks involve several issues that have long been sticking points – including which hostages and prisoners will be freed, as well as when and to where. The redeployment of Israeli troops in Gaza and return of Palestinian civilians to the north of the territory are also under discussion, as is the handling of aid distribution.
Sullivan was quoted as saying on Monday that “there is a distinct possibility that we can get this deal done just before President Biden leaves office”.
“We’ve been close before and haven’t gotten across the finish line,” Sullivan said. He was speaking at an event in Washington hosted by Bloomberg News. “Can we get to a final agreement, and then can we begin implementing it in the coming days? It’s there for the taking. So the question is, now, can we all collectively seize the moment and make this happen?”
Key events
Summary of the day
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Israel and Hamas appear to be inching closer to a phased ceasefire agreement, officials said on Monday, though nothing has been publicly agreed to yet. Qatar, which is mediating between the two parties, has handed both sides a “final”’ draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters. A breakthrough was reached in Doha after talks between Israel’s spy chiefs, Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy and Qatar’s prime minister, the official added. The Biden administration sees a possible Gaza agreement as soon as this week, the White House national security adviser told Bloomberg News. The remaining sticking points reportedly include which hostages and prisoners will be freed, as well as Hamas’ demand that Israel withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor. Hamas insists that any negotiations to secure the release of hostages must form part of a comprehensive pact to end Israel’s assault on Gaza, while Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking a more segmented agreement (you can read more about the state of the negotiations here). The Israeli finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, denounced the agreement being worked on as a “surrender” deal.
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An Israeli lawyer has filed submissions to the international criminal court (ICC) alleging incitement to genocide against Palestinians by eight Israeli officials, including President Isaac Herzog and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
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Wafa, the Palestinian news agency, said at least five people were killed in the bombing of the Salah al-Din school in Gaza City, which was housing displaced Palestinian people.
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At least 46,584 Palestinian people have been killed and 109,731 injured in Israeli attacks on Gaza since 7 October 2023, the Gaza health ministry said in its latest update. At least 19 Palestinians were killed in the last 24 hours, the ministry said.
We are closing this blog now. Thanks for following along. You can find all of our latest Middle East coverage here.
New submissions on incitement to genocide filed to international criminal court
Haroon Siddique
Haroon Siddique is the Guardian’s legal affairs correspondent
An Israeli lawyer has filed submissions to the international criminal court (ICC) alleging incitement to genocide against Palestinians by eight Israeli officials, including President Isaac Herzog and prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The lawyer, Omer Shatz, who is also a counsel to the ICC, says that it is the first time where a case for incitement to genocide has been framed as a crime that can be independently prosecuted irrespective of whether genocide or intent to commit genocide has been proven.
A 170-page submission, which he says took a year to prepare with students at the International Law In Action clinic at Sciences Po in Paris, where he is a lecturer, accuses the eight, who also include the former defence minister, Yoav Gallant, of having “publicly and directly incited others to commit genocide against Palestinians in Gaza”.
The ICC has already issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. However, despite receiving submissions on alleged genocide – commonly acknowledged to be the hardest offence to prove under international criminal law – it was not investigated by the court’s prosecutor.
The new submissions say: “Unlike all other ICC crimes and modes of liability, this inchoate crime (incitement to genocide) can and indeed must be independently investigated and prosecuted, regardless of whether genocide has been committed or not.”
Shatz added: “There were (in the past) cases of incitement to genocide in the case law, in Rwanda and so on but it was always attached to the genocide and this is the first time saying, irrespective of whether you believe it is or it is not (genocide), you can go ahead with incitement.”
Statements cited as evidence include Gallant saying here would be “no electricity, no food, no fuel” in Gaza, Herzog saying “an entire nation … is responsible” and Netanyahu invoking the biblical story of Amalek, in which it is said “spare no one, but kill alike men and women.”
The submissions, filed on behalf of an anonymous Palestinian, also say the ICC should act given the interim findings of the international court of justice (ICJ) which said Israel must “punish the direct and public incitement to commit genocide” and which they say Israel has failed to do. They say that in November last year the legal adviser to the Israeli government informed the country’s supreme court of their decision not to open a single criminal investigation on the matter, which means the onus falls on the ICC to prosecute.
The other accused are the current Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, retired major general Giora Eiland, Israeli finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the journalist Zvi Yehezkeli.
The Israeli government has dismissed all allegations against it at the ICC and ICJ as baseless and grounded in antisemitism. At the ICJ, its lawyers argued that statements supposedly inciting genocide were partial and decontextualised.
Shatz said the submissions had presented a case that was “obvious”. He said: “It’s so solid, factually and legally, I don’t see how the prosecutor can avoid prosecuting.” The ICC prosecutor is not obliged to investigate based on the submissions.
Israeli forces have detained over 260 health workers in Gaza, physicians group says
Al Jazeera has spoken to Naji Abbas, the director of prisoners and detainees department at physicians for human rights Israel, about the plight of health workers who have been targeted by Israeli forces in Gaza during the war. The outlet – among the most influential in the Arab world – was banned from operating in Israel by Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in May. It is reporting in its live blog that Israeli forces have detained at least 262 health workers in Gaza, including Hussam Abu Safiya, the head of northern Gaza’s Kamal Adwan hospital, which was attacked by Israeli forces last month as part of the military siege of the area. Safiya’s fate remains unknown.
Abbas said the organisation’s lawyers had visited 26 of the detained healthcare workers, mainly doctors, over the past four months. He told Al Jazeera:
All of them described a very concerning situation about their brutal arrest, about the torture that they faced during the interrogations, about not knowing till now after months – some of them almost after a year of detention, they don’t know why they are being held till now.
All of them described horrific conditions, starvation, denial of medical care.
US sees possible Gaza deal this week – White House
The Biden administration sees a possible Gaza agreement as soon as this week, White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told Bloomberg News earlier today. Despite expressing optimism, he stressed there were no guarantees that Israel and Hamas would agree to such a deal that could pause the 15-month-old war on the devastated territory. The US is pressing for a deal before Donald Trump takes office on 20 January.
Here is an extract from the Bloomberg piece:
Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say they’ve presented a detailed outline to Hamas in a second day of discussions in the Qatari capital of Doha and are awaiting approval for final talks. A Hamas official outside Gaza, who asked not to be identified, agreed that a deal is closer than ever …
The talks involve several issues that have long been sticking points – including which hostages and prisoners will be freed, as well as when and to where. The redeployment of Israeli troops in Gaza and return of Palestinian civilians to the north of the territory are also under discussion, as is the handling of aid distribution.
Sullivan was quoted as saying on Monday that “there is a distinct possibility that we can get this deal done just before President Biden leaves office”.
“We’ve been close before and haven’t gotten across the finish line,” Sullivan said. He was speaking at an event in Washington hosted by Bloomberg News. “Can we get to a final agreement, and then can we begin implementing it in the coming days? It’s there for the taking. So the question is, now, can we all collectively seize the moment and make this happen?”
Hamas official reveals sticking points in ceasefire negotiation
A Hamas official has spoken to CNN about the remaining sticking points that have prevented a ceasefire deal being secured by negotiators.
They include Hamas’ demands that Israel withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor, the Israeli military’s code name for the 9-mile-long (14km) strip of land along the Gaza-Egypt border, and commit to a permanent ceasefire rather than a temporary halt to the war, which Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to wage until “total victory”.
According to reporting by CNN, another obstacle is the size of the Israeli-proposed buffer zone inside Gaza to run along the strip’s eastern and northern borders with Israel (Hamas reportedly wants the zone to return to the pre-October 7 size of 300-500 meters (330-545 yards) from the border line; Israel wants a much larger 2,000-meter depth).
“We believe this means that 60 km (37 miles) of the Gaza Strip will remain under their control, and displaced people will not return to their homes,” the official said.
Hamas: progress made in talks for a ceasefire
Hamas has told the Reuters news agency that talks over core issues for a ceasefire in Gaza have made progress and that work is ongoing “to conclude what remains soon.”
The Iran-backed Hezbollah group are reported to have postponed an appointment with Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Aoun, which it was due to communicate its preference for the post of prime minister.
The Shi’ite group and its ally the Shi’ite Amal Movement had been due to tell Aoun they wanted caretaker Prime Minister Nabib Mikati to stay in the post, which is reserved for a Sunni Muslim in Lebanon’s sectarian political system.
But the two Shi’ite groups delayed their meeting as it became clear that another candidate, International Court of Justice President Nawaf Salam, looked set to emerge from the process with the most support among lawmakers, according to ‘political sources’ quoted by Reuters.
Aoun is required to designate the candidate with the greatest support among Lebanon’s 128 parliamentarians.
Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Aoun, who has been head of the country’s army since 2017, has began parliamentary consultations to designate a prime minister tasked with forming a government in Lebanon.
Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, who has led the country in a caretaker capacity throughout the presidential vacuum and is backed by the Hezbollah-led alliance, and Nawaf Salam, a favourite of anti-Hezbollah lawmakers who is the presiding judge at the international court of justice in The Hague, are reported frontrunners.
The first round of talks ended shortly before midday with 12 independent lawmakers backing Salam, seven picking Mikati, and two others choosing neither of them. Aoun was then to meet the main parliamentary blocs in the afternoon. Under Lebanon’s power-sharing system, Lebanon’s president is a Maronite Christian, the prime minister is a Sunni Muslim, and the parliament speaker is a Shiite Muslim.
My colleague William Christou has this analysis on the challenges facing Aoun, who was the favoured candidate to be president (a largely ceremonial role) of international powers such as Saudi Arabia, France and the US. Here is an extract from his piece:
The main task for Aoun is to reassert the role of the Lebanese army, particularly in south Lebanon, where since the late 1970s the army’s control has been contested by groups such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation and Hezbollah.
Speaking before parliament after his election, Aoun vowed to “confirm the state’s right to monopolise the carrying of weapons” and emphasised the army’s right to control the country’s borders.
All armed groups in Lebanon were meant to disarm under a 2004 UN resolution, but Hezbollah retained its arms under the justification that it was the only force that could protect Lebanon from Israel. The Lebanese army has historically been a weak force.
Under the terms of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire signed on 27 November, the Lebanese army is to deploy in south Lebanon, while Hezbollah is meant to withdraw, in what politicians and diplomats have styled as the reclaiming of Lebanese state sovereignty.
Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, has been speaking at a press conference in Jerusalem alongside his visiting Danish counterpart, Lars Løkke Rasmussen.
He has been quoted by the Times of Israel as saying in relation to reported progress in the ceasefire talks:
Progress was made. We see some progress in the negotiations … Israel wants a hostage deal. Israel is working with our American friends in order to achieve a hostage deal, and soon we will know whether the other side wants the same thing.
Asked about a timeline for a potential hostage deal, Sa’ar replied:
There is progress, I said it looks much better than previously … but I don’t want to say more than that, because I realise there are families that are sensitive to every word and every sentence.
Final draft of Gaza hostage deal presented to sides after ‘breakthrough’, official says
We mentioned in the opening summary that an official close to the ceasefire negotiations Qatar gave Israel and Hamas a final draft of a deal on Monday. This reportedly came after a midnight “breakthrough” in talks attended by US president-elect Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff. Officials from the outgoing Biden administration are also thought to have participated. “The next 24 hours will be pivotal to reaching the deal,” the official said. A Palestinian official close to the talks told Reuters that information from Doha, the Qatari capital, was “very promising”, adding: “Gaps were being narrowed and there is a big push toward an agreement if all goes well to the end.”
Dozens of countries will send delegates to Norway on Wednesday as part of a global alliance aiming to find a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Norway’s foreign ministry has said.
In a statement, Norway’s foreign minister, Espen Barth Eide, said:
While we must continue to work for an end to the war (in Gaza), we must also work for a lasting solution to the conflict that guarantees self-determination, security and justice for both the Palestinians and the Israelis.
There is broad support for a two-state solution, but the international community must do more to make it a reality.
Representatives of more than 80 countries and organisations are expected to take part in the meeting, though no official Israeli delegation has been announced.
Palestinian prime minister Mohammed Mustafa, the head of the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency Unrwa Philippe Lazzarini, and UN envoy to the Middle East Tor Wennesland are among those due to attend.
Israel was angered when several countries – including Norway – decided to recognise the Palestinian state. Spain and Ireland also recognised the state of Palestine last year, while Slovenia has established diplomatic relations.
Palestine is recognised by various international organisations including the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic cooperation. Most countries around the world formally recognise a Palestinian state.
At its simplest, the two-state solution is the idea of establishing an independent Palestinian state that lives side-by-side with Israel. There would be two states on the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. You can read more about the two state solution in this useful explainer. Even though it is often touted by world leaders as the best policy going forward, it looks increasingly unrealistic in the eyes of many Israelis and Palestinians.
Reports of deadly Israeli attack on school sheltering displaced Palestinian people in Gaza City
There are reports of a deadly Israeli attack on the Salah al-Din school in Gaza City. Wafa, the Palestinian news agency, said at least five people were killed in the bombing of the school, which was housing Palestinians displaced from their homes by Israel’s expanding war on the territory. The Israeli military have killed many people sheltering in schools over the course of the war, claiming they are targeting militants using them as bases – but this is heavily denied by residents and officials on the ground.
Separately, there are reports of four Palestinian people being killed after a car was struck by Israeli forces in the southern city of Rafah.
Death toll from Israeli attacks on Gaza reaches 46,584, says health ministry
At least 46,584 Palestinian people have been killed and 109,731 injured in Israeli attacks on Gaza since 7 October 2023, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement on Monday.
At least 19 Palestinians were killed in the last 24 hours, the ministry said.
Gaza’s health ministry has said in the past that thousands of other dead people are most likely lost in the rubble of the territory.
Biden and Netanyahu discuss hostage deal amid cautious optimism about ceasefire in Gaza
Hello, and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Israel’s war on Gaza and developments in the Middle East more widely.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the US president, Joe Biden, spoke yesterday about efforts to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Israel’s war on Gaza. Momentum seems to be building but uncertainty remains over key aspects of the potential agreement.
The White House said Biden discussed the “fundamentally changed regional circumstances” following Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the rapid rebel offensive that toppled former president Bashar al-Assad in Syria last month, and the dilution of Iran’s power in the region after the Israeli military killed much of its senior leadership over the autumn.
Netanyahu was reported to have updated Biden on instructions he had given to senior negotiators in Doha “in order to advance the release of the hostages”. Western intelligence services estimate that at least one-third of the remaining 95 or so Israeli captives in Gaza have been killed. About 250 people were taken hostage in the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel, in which an estimated 1,200 people were killed.
Sunday’s call between Biden and Netanyahu came as the head of Israel’s the Mossad foreign intelligence agency, David Barnea, and Biden’s most senior Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, were both in Doha. Barnea’s presence meant high-level Israeli officials who would need to sign off on any agreement are now involved in talks.
McGurk has been working on final details of a text to be presented to both sides. The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told CNN. “We are very, very close,” he said. “Yet being very close still means we’re far because until you actually get across the finish line, we’re not there.”
An official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Monday that Qatar has handed Israel and Hamas a “final” draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement designed to end the war. We have not been able to independently verify this claim.
Ceasefire talks have stalled repeatedly even when officials have expressed optimism about so-called breakthroughs. Netanyahu has been accused of delaying a deal for political purposes, possibly awaiting Donald Trump’s assumption of office on 20 January. Trump has said there will be “hell to pay” if Hamas does not release its hostages before he takes office, suggesting he is seeking a deal before the inauguration day.
As my colleagues Lorenzo Tondo and Bethan McKernan note in this story, Hamas insists that any negotiations to secure the release of hostages must form part of a comprehensive pact to end the hostilities in Gaza, while Netanyahu is seeking a more segmented agreement, aiming for a deal that would see the liberation of some, though not all, hostages, while simultaneously preserving Israel’s prerogative to recommence hostilities against Hamas upon the deal’s expiration.
Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has criticised the deal being worked out in Gaza, saying it is a “catastrophe” for Israel’s security and was a “surrender” to Hamas.
Netanyahu has become more reliant on the support of Smotrich and other far-right elements of his coalition government – such as national security minister Itamar Ben–Gvir – since the former defence minister Benny Gantz quit Israel’s emergency war cabinet in a row over strategy in the war and how to bring home Israeli hostages held by Hamas. We will bring you the latest on the ceasefire negotiations throughout the day.
